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Xi Jinping is unlikely to accept President-elect Donald Trump’s invitation to his inauguration ceremony, according to experts who suggest the gesture may have minimal impact on the increasingly competitive relationship between the two nations.

The invitation for the January 20 event was confirmed by Trump’s incoming press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, though the Chinese Embassy in Washington provided no comment on the matter.

“Can you imagine Xi Jinping sitting outdoors in Washington, DC, in January at the feet of the podium, surrounded by hawkish members of Congress, gazing up at Donald Trump as he delivers his inaugural address?” said Danny Russel, who previously served as assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.

Russel, now at the Asia Society Policy Institute, explained that Xi wouldn’t diminish himself by appearing as a mere attendee celebrating another leader’s triumph.

The absence of precedent for Chinese leaders attending U.S. presidential inaugurations makes Beijing hesitant, according to Yun Sun of the Stimson Center. She highlighted potential complications, such as Taiwan’s diplomatic presence at such events, noting Taiwan’s top U.S. diplomat attended Biden’s 2021 inauguration.

The situation becomes particularly delicate given Trump’s threats of imposing 60% tariffs on Chinese goods. Sun emphasized that Xi’s attendance could prove embarrassing if such policies were implemented afterward.

Chinese officials are particularly protective of their leader’s dignity during foreign visits, noted Russel, citing their insistence on full state visit protocols. However, he anticipates future face-to-face meetings between Trump and Xi, given Trump’s preference for personal diplomacy with key adversaries.

The potential Trump presidency, featuring China hawks like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz in key positions, suggests intensified U.S.-China competition. Beijing maintains a cautious stance while preparing to respond to any unfavorable U.S. actions.

Sun referenced Trump’s 2017 China visit, which was followed by a trade war, cautioning that Trump’s diplomatic gestures don’t preclude hostile policies. She emphasized China’s wariness of Trump’s dual approach, noting Beijing’s preference to avoid potential manipulation through either friendly or hostile messaging.