Biden’s NY Lead Shrinks

Longtime Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf said that a new poll reveals former President Trump within single digits of President Biden in deep-blue New York.

“What it tells you is that people are unhappy, all of them, most of (them),” Sheinkopf told Fox News Digital in an interview Friday. He went on to say that many individuals worry about the current disorganized state of the economy and notably see a party that’s not fully in control of the White House. 

New polls indicate the Biden movement may be an understatement. President Biden’s approval ratings have dropped, and his lead over former President Donald Trump has shrunk to single digits in New York, even after NY’s long-standing relationship with the Dem party. The change is so big that it has set off alarm bells among Democratic strategists, who worry that it could portend larger election problems down the road.

Poll Results: According to a poll conducted by Emerson College in conjunction with The Hill and PIX11, Biden currently holds a slim seven-point lead over Trump in New York, with Biden at 48% and Trump at 41%. When undecided voters were prompted to choose, Biden’s support rose to 55%, while Trump’s increased to 45%. This narrow margin has raised alarms among Democrats, given New York’s long-standing support for Democratic candidates.​

Key Issues for Voters: A recent poll noted that the key issue for voters is our current economy, ranked at the top for most (34%) of NYS voters, followed by immigration (16%), crime (13%), and housing affordability (12%). Despite the attempts made by Biden and other Democrats to cast Trump as a threat to democracy, just 7% of voters named threats facing issues related to our democracy as their primary concern.

Biden’s Approval Ratings: President Biden’s approval ratings are also in decline, with only 39% of New York voters approving of his job performance compared to 50% disapproving. This dissatisfaction is another red flag for his re-election prospects​.

National Implications: Biden’s troubling poll numbers in New York are part of a broader trend. Nationally, Biden’s poll numbers are slipping, with Trump gaining ground in key swing states like Arizona and Michigan. Trump’s support among younger voters and independents is increasing, further complicating Biden’s re-election bid​​.

Conclusion: The fact that Biden is only up by a point in New York, despite Trump being crushed here in 2016, should jar the Biden camp. As Democrats run through a list of congressional districts once considered safe, the pressure to craft a message that resonates with hesitant voters could be greater than ever. This portends a very competitive 2024 election in which both campaigns will have to adjust and change as the political landscape loosens beneath their feet.