A recent poll indicates that former President Donald Trump is gaining support in the Democratic state of New York. The Democratic state has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984, when Ronald Reagan beat former Vice President Walter Mondale by an 8-point margin.

Since then, Democrats have claimed victories in the state by large margins. In 2016, Trump lost the Empire State to former presidential aspirant Hillary Clinton by a 22.5-point margin. In 2020, President Joe Biden defeated the former president by 23.2 points in New York.

Another poll conducted by Emerson College Polling/The Hill/PIX11 has indicated that Biden’s lead has decreased to only seven points, 48-41, especially in a two-way matchup. Meanwhile, with third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Cornel West and Jill Stein still included, Biden’s lead decreased to six points, 44-38.

The poll surveyed 48% of registered democrats, 23% registered Republicans, 29% independents and 46% voters from New York City.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that independents in New York are backing Trump by a significant margin.

“Independent voters in New York who traditionally vote for Democrats, according to exit polling, have flipped to lean toward Trump by a margin of 10 points, 43% to 33%,” Kimball said in a statement.

The poll also indicated that most New Yorkers’ top issues align with the problems that the Republicans have constantly emphasized.

34% said the economy, followed by immigration 16%, crime 13%, housing affordability 12%, healthcare 8%, threats to democracy 7%, and education 5%.

44% of voters think there is more crime in their area compared to a year ago, while 41% believe there is about the same amount of crime and 16% less crime.

All these and more sum up why 50% of New Yorkers surveyed for the poll disapproved of Biden’s job as commander-in-chief, and Gov. Kathy Hochul’s (D-NY) disapproval rating is sitting at 49%.

The Emerson College Polling New York survey was conducted May 28-29, 2024. The poll’s margin of error (MOE) is +/- 3 percentage points.